I feel extremely lucky to have met another person on a social media platform who offered her¹ thoughts on recent “counterdrug operations” against Venezuela. Many in the media believe it to be a function of adding pressure to force President Maduro out of power.

We seemed to agree on much throughout our extended thread. But she really opened my eyes to two other goals: rare earth minerals and weakening China’s reach in the Western Hemisphere:

The China warhawk behind the scenes prodding [Sec. of State Marco] Rubio is [Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eldridge] Colby and he’s also driving policy to poke the 8,000 lb. sleeping giant which is China any way he can. China has rare earth minerals, and they need oil which we want to shut down. Trump play = rare earth minerals.

On Colby, from Wikipedia:

Identifying as a realist, Colby believes China is the principal threat faced by the United States. He believes the US should shift its military resources to Asia to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.²

His mention of rare earth minerals caught my eye, because it reminded me of Trump’s short-lived fascination with Greenland. Investigative reporters started digging into what possible interest the Trump Administration may have in it, and the answer I read was — say it with me now — rare earth minerals.

Research republished by the Pulitzer Center in English shows Greenland has an unusual concentration of rare and untapped earth mineral deposits at the boundary of the Arctic Circle on its western coast. Demand for these minerals, especially those used in manufacturing processes, currently outpaces supply.³ It’s a classic application of “the golden rule” (He who has the gold…). Similar reporting suggests “Greenland holds 10% of global rare earth deposits—minerals that China currently monopolizes and just banned from export to the U.S.” ⁴

What do rare earth minerals have to do with Venezuela, Drug Trafficking, and China?

The short answer is guerrilla groups from Colombia, suggests a November article from The Guardian. Guerrilla groups have crossed Venezuela’s western border and taken over areas where rare earth mineral mining is taking place:

Mines near [an unnamed indigenous man’s] community in Venezuela’s Bolívar state were seized in 2023 when hundreds of insurgents from the National Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia’s largest active guerrilla group, arrived, accompanied by Chinese buyers. “Months later, they brought in helicopters. They were taking the materials away,” he recalls.⁵

U.S. combat troops wouldn’t be fighting only the Venezuelan military; they’re likely going to be taking on Colombian narco-terrorists, too.

Notice the ELN arrived with Chinese buyers. The ELN likely considers control of these mines as an ilicit economy vertical in much the same way as its narcotics operations. So, for the U.S., destruction of the narcotics traffickers is perhaps thought to cripple the insurgents who control the mining operations which supply China.

That seems tidy. But what does this have to do with the Maduro government? Contributors to Wikipedia contend that the ELN actually operates half of Venezuela’s states, and that the Maduro regime, like the Chavez regime before it, supports the ELN:

Before the 2002 coup attempt, discontent within the military started when President Hugo Chávez forced them to assist the FARC, a militant Colombian guerrilla group involved in illegal drug trade, with setting up camps in Venezuelan territories, providing ammunition to fight the Colombian government, supplying ID cards so they could move freely through Venezuela and sending members of Bolivarian Circles to their camps to receive guerilla training.^[3] The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) accused Chavez’s government of funding FARC’s Caracas office and giving it access to intelligence services, and said that during the 2002 coup attempt that, “FARC also responded to requests from (Venezuela’s intelligence service) to provide training in urban terrorism involving targeted killings and the use of explosives.” Venezuelan diplomats denounced the IISS’ findings….. Insight Crime states that Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was tolerant of the ELN, explaining that “ELN’s expansion in Venezuela has been marked by the Maduro administration’s inaction and even encouragement towards the group”, with reports from Venezuelan NGO Fundación Redes that the Venezuelan military had possibly armed ELN members. ⁶

This could be troublesome for U.S. combat troops should they deploy to Venezuela — they’re not going to be fighting only the Venezuelan military; they’re likely going to be taking on Colombian narcoterrorists, too. No wonder I saw a media report stating the DoD was thinking about reopening the Jungle Warfare School in Panama (of course, that’s not U.S. land anymore).

What About Somalia?

Much like Somalia’s untapped oil reserves, Somalia is built upon significant mineral resources, including rare earth minerals. Somalia occupies the northeastern coasts of Africa, bordering on the Gulf of Aden to the north and the Arabian Sea to the east. Somaliland, which claims to have broken away from the rest of Somalia in 1991, has offered the U.S. access to those mineral resources, in exchange for recognition of its sovereignty.

(U.S. occupation of Somaliland would station U.S. forces directly south of Yemen and “around the corner” from Saudi Arabia and Sudan on the Red Sea. Perhaps more importantly, it would put the U.S. on China’s doorstep AND offer additional options should America be called to aid the E.U. against Russia.)

China, in an effort to “corner the market,” seeks to secure contracts for rare earth minerals from Somaliland in particular, and is not above creating regional instability to improve their chances. Somaliland certainly represents economic interests for China, but its strategic objective is to ruin the ties it forged with Taiwan; the regional instability serves two purposes. ^{7, 8}

Comment: Some points in President Trump’s infamous November 28 rant about Somalia “ripping us off” is likely addressed in Rubin’s article for AEI — he remarks that Somalia has been regarded as the world’s most corrupt country for fourteen years. ⁹

And Nigeria?

Yes, Nigeria too.

In June of this year, “Nigeria announced a $400 million foreign investment deal to develop what could become Africa’s largest rare earths and critical minerals processing plant.” ¹⁰

The EcoFin Agency article further states Nigeria estimates its mineral wealth at $700BB, and intends to triple its mining output, increasing its percentage of GDP from mining from 1% (2025) to 10% in 2026.

Anngu Orngu, writing for Economic Confidential, saw right through Trump’s remarks about attacks on Christians and saw China on the other side:

Nigeria is sitting on gold — not only metaphorically, but literally. The country’s soil holds vast deposits of gold, columbite, tantalite, lithium, and other rare-earth minerals essential for electric vehicles, smartphones, and modern weapons systems. Whoever controls these resources controls the technological future of the world.

China, already dominant in rare-earth production, is running low on domestic reserves. Its next frontier is Africa. And Nigeria, with porous regulation and persistent insecurity, offers fertile ground for exploitation.

Across Zamfara, Niger, Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue, and Taraba States, illegal mining has become an epidemic. Behind the surface chaos lies an organized network of Chinese-backed miners, local collaborators, and armed militias providing “protection.” Entire villages are being emptied — not by ideology but by design — to clear land for mining. ¹¹

China/Oil

The U.S. Department of Commerce, operating through the U.S. Embassies network, published a report on China’s oil and gas industries. It states that China became the world’s #1 importer of crude oil across the globe in 2018, topping 461.9 million tons, or 9.24 million barrels of oil per day. Its reliance on oil imports accounted for 70% of consumption, according to one of three of China’s national oil corporations; estimates place its reliance at 80% by 2030. Chinese analysts believe domestic oil demand will plateau by that time, owing to electric vehicles replacing those powered by gas and diesel. China seeks to reduce its foreign reliance through an increase in domestic exploration. As a note of interest, China manufactures two-thirds of all oil drilling-related equipment.^{12, 13}

China’s oil is sourced primarily from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern nations (Iran, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain). The remaining third comes from multiple smaller exporters, including Canada and the U.S. Central- and South American exports account for only 9% of China’s oil imports. ¹⁴

All of this information goes to illustrate that the U.S.’ seizure of the M/T Skipper off the northeastern coast of Venezuela earlier this week had no evident relationship to China.

According to AP News, the ship, formerly known as M/T Adisa, “was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2022 over accusations of belonging to a sophisticated network of shadow tankers that smuggled crude oil on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group.” ¹⁵

¹ All I have is a username and a profile pic, which led me to assume the sex was female.

² “Elbridge Colby.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 10 Dec. 2025, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbridge_Colby.

³ Vaillant, Tom. “Greenland’s Rare Earths Attract European and U.S Interest, Signaling Potential Mining Boom (German) | Pulitzer Center.” Pulitzer Center, Pulitzer Center, 14 Nov. 2024, pulitzercenter.org/stories/greenlands-rare-earths-attract-european-and-us-interest-signaling-potential-mining-boom.

⁴ Vaillant, Tom. “Greenland Untapped: Breaking China’s Mineral Monopoly | Pulitzer Center.” Pulitzer Center, Pulitzer Center, 27 Dec. 2024, pulitzercenter.org/stories/greenland-untapped-breaking-chinas-mineral-monopoly.

⁵ de los Ángeles Ramírez, Maria. “‘Drug Trafficking, Extortion, Kidnapping’: The Lawless Rush for Rare Earth Minerals in Venezuela.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 7 Nov. 2025, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/nov/07/drug-trafficking-extortion-kidnapping-the-lawless-rush-for-rare-earth-minerals-in-venezuela.

⁶ “Venezuela and State-Sponsored Terrorism.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 12 Nov. 2025, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela_and_state-sponsored_terrorism.

⁷ Rubin, Michael. “The State Department Puts China First on Rare Earth Metals | American Enterprise Institute – AEI.” American Enterprise Institute, American Enterprise Institute, 7 Aug. 2019, http://www.aei.org/articles/the-state-department-puts-china-first-on-rare-earth-metals/.

⁸ “Somaliland Was Fighting China All Along—And Didn’t Know It.” Waryatv.Com, waryatv.com, http://www.waryatv.com/2025/12/11/the-beijing-doctrine-punish-the-partner/.

⁹ Rubin.

¹⁰ “Nigeria: $400MLN for ‘Africa’s Largest Rare Earths Plant,’ but Uncertainty Remains.” Ecofin Agency, Ecofin Agency, http://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/2306-47379-nigeria-400mln-for-africa-s-largest-rare-earths-plant-but-uncertainty-remains. Accessed 14 Dec. 2025.

¹¹ Orngu, Anngu. “Nigeria, China, and Trump’s Warning: The Hidden War beneath the Soil, by Anngu Orngu.” Economic Confidential, Economic Confidential, 3 Nov. 2025, economicconfidential.com/nigeria-china-trump/.

¹² “China – Oil and Gaschina – Oil and Gas.” China – Oil and Gas | Privacy Shield, Privacy Shield Framework, http://www.privacyshield.gov/ps/article?id=China-Oil-and-Gas. Accessed 14 Dec. 2025.

¹³ “China Oil Demand to Plateau between 2025 and 2030, State Researcher Says | Reuters.” Reuters, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-oil-demand-plateau-between-2025-2030-state-researcher-says-2025-12-11/. Accessed 14 Dec. 2025.

¹⁴ Neufeld, Dorothy. “Visualizing China’s Crude Oil Imports by Country.” Visual Capitalist, Visual Capitalist, 2 Sept. 2025, http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-imports-by-country/.

¹⁵ Madhani, Aamer, et al. “US Has Seized an Oil Tanker off the Coast of Venezuela, Trump Says.” AP News, AP News, 11 Dec. 2025, apnews.com/article/trump-tanker-seized-venezuela-maduro-0a148ba01684fc6ce1a228dd276732c0.