Let’s step back from the headlines for a moment to consider a bigger picture.

At the end of last year, the Trump Administration moved against Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and subsequently promising U.S. revitalization of its oil industry in particular — while sequestering 50 million barrels of crude oil. ^{1, 2}

Just a few days later, talk of a move against Iran — particularly Iranian oil — began to reach the press. And we now know that intelligence services had been keeping a very close eye on Ayotallah Ali Khamenei and other men in significant roles in the regime. The time to strike came the morning of Saturday, February 28th. Khamenei and the others lost their lives to explosive democracy. ^{3, 4}

Hot take: Capturing Venezuelan crude was an important milestone in a plan to move against Iran. The Trump administration knew that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would choke off commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (reports of the IRGC mining the strait were made public in the past few days). Given Iran’s geography and the fact that almost one-third of global oil tanker traffic passes through the strait made anticipation of IRGC naval maneuvers an obvious conclusion.

The United States has dramatically reduced its dependence on oil imports — a report published earlier this week suggests its imports from Gulf States in particular is down to about 500,000 barrels per day. A few years ago, the U.S. was a net importer of oil, buying 2 million barrels per day. The U.S.’ seizure of Venezuelan sour crude represents 100 days worth of U.S. domestic supply. ⁵

Iran produces both light and heavy (sour) grades of crude, which means the U.S. is well positioned, with its “bonus” 50 million barrels of Venezuelan sour crude, to attract new business from countries currently unable to import from Persian Gulf states.

In other words, by moving against Iran with Israel, the U.S. knew the IRGC would create demand for the oil it took from Venezuela.

It’s also not a big stretch to think the Administration also knew oil prices would spike (and it has) — and I think it’s pretty obvious that market manipulation is one of Mr. Trump’s favorite games to play. ⁶

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1. Farrell, T. (2026h, January 3). Maduro Captured. On Current Events. Retrieved March 12, 2026, from https://currentevents.blog/2026/01/03/maduro-captured/ ↩︎
2. Farrell, T. (2026e, January 8). US-Venezuela energy Deal: insights and implications. On Current Events. Retrieved March 12, 2026, from https://currentevents.blog/2026/01/08/doe-statement-on-venezuela/ ↩︎
3. Farrell, T. (2026d, January 30). Gulf states urge U.S. to avoid Iran intervention. On Current Events. Retrieved March 12, 2026, from https://currentevents.blog/2026/01/13/gulf-states-urge-u-s-to-avoid-iran-intervention/ ↩︎
4. Farrell, T. (2026j, March 5). Israel, U.S. strike Tehran, Iranian military targets. On Current Events. Retrieved March 12, 2026, from https://currentevents.blog/2026/03/02/israel-u-s-epic-fury/ ↩︎
5. Blogtienso. (2026, March 7). The dependence of the U.S. on oil from the Persian Gulf has never been lower. . . Binance Square. Retrieved March 12, 2026, from https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/299021225522097 ↩︎
6. Press releases | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services Democrats. (2026, February 24). U.S. House Committee on Financial Services Democrats. https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=415221 ↩︎